Under normal circumstances, a grown man wandering the streets at midnight talking into a phone for an hour would be strange, but when that man is Tommy Dutch, it just feels right.
Topics on this anything goes Wednesday include Harrah’s getting a slap on the wrist, the war for oil takes a chilly turn, television inspired by commercials, the top 5 albums of all time, and a 2 minute reason to not listen to hockey. Fuk U 2!
From a photographer that bakes her pies with fyre.
Email: Brian Mollica brian@notiowa.com and Tommy Dutch tom@notiowa.com Give us a call 206-203-Iowa
My first first post?
Classic picture, fyregirl.
havn’t listened yet but…
That pic? I think? Do the homeless have better karma than the people with a home?
I guess if Fyregirl took the pic that is:
Floetry in Motion!
I just looked closer at the picture. I’m assuming that’s rope between the dog’s head and front paws on the ground. At first I thought it might be a snake with the pattern. But then I realized that if it was a snake, it might be pretty pissed that a dog is passed out on it’s head…
Are they asleep in the picture? If not it’s just a pile of dead bodies on the street.
I would rather take a hot curling iron to the balls while chugging Drano than listen to the Cat Lady’d voice mails again.
AC/DC is an Australian band and is probably overrated.
Oh, and maybe the graffiti on the van was from a guy who thinks U2 is overrated.
I think I’m going to hedge by buying a ticket on AZ +125. I should be able to lockin a payout of $205-$210 no matter who wins!
-Andrew
wow – great call on Hendrix.
Great last sport show!
(fuck I wish I could get Don Best at work)
The show sounded like a good balance of everthing Not Iowa! I.E Sport + horseshit + gambling + Volume! Great Stuff!
Way to go CatLady!!!! Hockey IS way better, even if you weren’t really sure how to defend that position.
Come on, BMo, you can’t possibly expect me to believe that you dislike hockey so much. It’s a great sport played with phenominal intensity and passion. What more could you want???
It’s good to know the strippers of the world have some protections:
http://www.theindychannel.com/news/14306902/detail.html
It’s true Bob, I rag on hockey because it’s easy, but it is a fun game. I actually played a little when I was younger (roller hockey, of course, we don’t have ice in Arizona) and there is no sporting even more fun live than a hockey game. Tell you what, shorten the intermission to 10 minutes and ditch the offsides and I’m sold.
Don’t get me started on the intermission. It drives me absolutely crazy.
Even in such a hockey-mad city like Montreal, the hockey team finds it necessary to drive 2,000 lbs cars and 4-wheel buggies onto the ice to launch t-shirts and gifts into the crowd. Are you kidding me? Do we really need this? By the time they’re done, there’s hardly any time left to resurface the ice and give it a chance to dry before the next period starts. More often than not the players come out for the 2nd and 3rd periods onto a partially frozen pond as opposed to a state-of-the art multi-hundred-million dollar ice surface.
And off-sides haven’t been too bad now that the game is allowing two-line passes by removing the center-redline… but yes, there are still plenty of interuptions caused by one-too-many moves at the opponents blue line.
As were on hockey has any one watched the Wranglers down at the Orleans? They’ve a couple of games scheduled for during my next trip and thought it’d be good for a change.
Hmm, oddly hockey is one of the few sporting events that I would want to go to, I don’t have a fav team and I would care at all who was going to win, I would simply watch and enjoy it for the action…but still I am far from a fan, it is just fun to watch grown men that angry trying to play a game.
Oh, and Tommy D I am a little confused about the pic…well the details around the pic. I know that it was taken in Santa Barbara, and from what I can see in the pic I am going to have to guess that it was taken on State St. (I lived that for a while) and that it is of a homeless guy’s pets (I have to ask if he was a tall black man with dreads, maybe around 40ish, if so I used to have lunch with him about once a week and he is really great to talk with) as they all live peacefuly together. But that part that I was unsure about is who took the pic, the caption makes it seems as if it was fyregirl, but you had said that you went to S.B. with Bridget…so did Tony miss type that caption or is there some part of this S.B. trip you aren’t telling us about?
touche…
I have a very small play on Pittsburgh -4 at home against Navy tonight. Don’t love it, but I also don’t love not betting.
Is there anything tastier than duty free?
Nope. I go crazy at duty free everytime i travel. cheap liquor and cigs plus giant toblerone bars? can’t beat that
nice lists lads
Solution to the yellow/black bat problem. Just get double the yellow bats, and spray paint half of them black. Problem solved. No unfair advantages.
cut out the middleman.. get those anger management bats
Thanks Bigdadbob!
piercedruby I have an extra curling iron i can send you!
Mungus, there’s only one thing in the world better than duty free and that’s completely free.
Or maybe pie
Ok, after my shocking weekend time to get back to something I might do better on, the rugby.
Semi Final stage and an interesting line up. Old enemies England vs France and a big forward matchup with South Africa vs Argentina.
I’ll take the easy game first: South Africa vs Argentina. On current ranking 2 to 4 teams, Argentina are certainly the team of the tournament in terms of over achievment but SA from day 1 have been one of the teams to beat.
This should be a game for forwards and I think they are fairly close on this but the extra speed of the Saffers should give them and edge and they do have the better half backs to exploit any gaps that appear round the scrum. A weak spot for SA though is in there kicking game, a lot relies on some quite young players and the pressure may get to them.
The current line is SA -9. I expect SA to win and cover, but not by a blow out.
Now for the difficult one, England vs France. These two teams played each other a few times prior to the World Cup, the six nations game going to England and the warm up games going to France. It does have to be said the England win not only came at fortress Twickenham but was also against a French side who’s mind was elsewhere. The warm up games I feel give a much better view of what’s likely to happen. Although France won the games non of them were real blow outs and England never really performed in either game.
The current line is France -9, with England playing much better rugby now and all of France expecting not only a win but a win with style I thing it’s a good time for a bet on England. England have shown they can grind out a game, keep in with the forwards
I don’t expect England to dominate up front as they did against Australia, but they should have the edge. The French backs are better, but I think the english defense is a little stronger. A lot will depend on how England kick if Wilkinson can get used to the new ball I feel England will be able to keep the scoreboard ticking over enough to stay in the game.
The one thing that would worry me is if the French use the same tactic as they did against the Kiwis. Leave Chabal and Michelak (sp?) on the bench and bring them on late to make an impact then. The French bench appears to be stringer than England and this could be enough to give the game to France.
However I still fancy the game to be close, so England +9 for me.
So I’m going for:
England +9
SA -9
And I have one undisclosed bet from very early one, I took SA to win the tournament at 8 to 1 (I put the bet on after the England vs SA game).
My record is 16-14-0 (although I’m tempted to seasonally adjust that to 16-12-0 by getting rid of the doubles) and as long a SA win there game I will return a profit from the tournament.
Sometimes the universes collide and align in the oddest ways – for example, this community of international degenerates and this story I say in the paper this morning:
“Meanwhile, elsewhere in the world of soccer and in Italy: Fourth-division team Trento Calcio 1921 has a sponsorship deal with Austrian-based brothel Casa Bianca. The establishment reportedly paid $14,200 to be listed on the team’s Web site.”
The whole story can be found here: http://www.suntimes.com/sports/quickhits/598755,CST-SPT-7hit11.article and it is pretty amusing since you will also find the pope mentioned in the article.
BMo, not a bad list of of albums but, and I am being picky here, I have to take issue with one of them.
Bob Marley – Legend
I’m in no doubt it’s a great album, in fact, I even said it would have been in my top 5 if it wasn’t for one thing – it’s a compilation. It’s not my rules, you guys set them up. That said I have been listening to it most of the day.
I did however really like your reason for your U2 album choice. Musically it may not be the best album in the world but you are right it does bring back some good memories.
I’m also pretty surprised at Tommy picking an Oasis album (a live album shouldn’t really be allowed, but you only excluded compilations and greatest hits). All we tend to hear about Oasis and the US is how they’ve cancelled another US tour due to something (usually the Gallaghers fighting).
what in the hell was wannstedt thinking in calling pass plays on 3rd AND 4th down in that second overtime? I hate Pitt as much as the next Mountaineer and enjoy seeing them lose, but those kids deserve better than the brain-fart they got from their coach.
That game was insane. I liked Pitt because I had seen Navy play a few times this season and that defense is a joke. Apparently Wanstedt to a page from their defensive coordinator because every possession for both teams was a race to the goal line.
Ditto on post 18.
Patch, what happened to you on the map?
Anyone wanting to get to Vegas, I have a Southwest Rapid Reward ticket I need to get rid of.
Thanks for the shout out Brian.
Of course the details of the story as you created them are far more interesting than reality. So I’ll just let that stand as the official version. I’ll save the real story for some future meet up.
NFL picks coming later in the week.
Rick
I saw this quiz on Bill Simmons’ website and thought it would be a good test for everyone on this website. How did everyone do?
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — Are you a good gambler?
Take our short quiz and find out whether you’re lucky to have the shirt on your back or you’re a casino’s worst nightmare.
Questions
1. Blackjack:
You are playing at a table with six decks and the dealer always stands on 17.
i) You are dealt an Ace and a 4. The dealer is showing a 4.
You should:
a) Double down (double your bet and take one final card)
b) Take a card/hit
c) Stand
ii) You are dealt a 5 and a 7. The dealer is showing a 2.
You should:
a) Double down
b) Take a card/hit
c) Stand
2. Craps: In this dice game, what odds are paid for a bet on rolling a “hard 8,” or two 4s?
a) 7-1
b) 8-1
c) If you think I’m going to bet the hard eight, you’re nuts.
3. Poker: Which cards would you prefer to be dealt as a starting hand in Texas Hold ‘Em?
a) Ace, Queen (not the same suit)
b) King, Queen (same suit)
c) 10, 10
4. Proposition bets (unique wagers on a specific outcome):
i) How many people do you need to have in a room for there to be a 50 percent chance that two of them have the same birthday?
a) 23
b) 37
c) 52
ii) You are on a game show and there are three doors. You are told that behind one door there is a box with $1 million and behind the other two a box with $1. You choose a door. The game show host, who knows in advance where the winning box is, opens one of the other doors to reveal a box with $1. He then offers you the choice to switch from your original door to the other door. What should you do?
a) Stick with your original choice
b) Switch doors
c) It doesn’t matter what you do
iii) You are in a bar and someone offers you a bet on the last digit of the serial number of the $1 bill the barman is about to give you as part of your change. Should you bet on odd or even?
5. Football: You learn that an ice storm with 40 mile-per-hour winds is forecast to hit the Green Bay Packers’ Lambeau Field during a game against the Miami Dolphins. The betting line has not yet moved, and you can bet on the outcome of the game as well as the total points scored by both teams. (In these “over/under” bets, you wager on the two teams’ points totaling more or less than a level set by the bookie.) What is the best bet?
a) Bet on the Packers because they have more experience with playing in the snow and high winds.
b) Parlay the Packers and the “over” on the basis that there will be more fumbles and turnovers and the Packers should handle the experience better.
c) Bet on the “under” as both teams are likely to struggle in the conditions.
Answers
1. Under basic Blackjack strategy, you should:
i) (a) double down (2 points). Because one of your cards is an Ace, you are guaranteed not to “bust,” or go over 21, on the next card. By contrast, the dealer has a significant chance of busting with a 4 card showing.
ii) (b) take a card (2 points). You have a hand value of 12, which has a lower chance of busting than the dealer’s hand showing a 2.
2. (c) is the best answer (2 points), but mathematically (b) is correct (1 point).
The “hard 8” pays 8-1 but is one of the worst bets on the craps table, with a house edge of 9.09 percent. Only the hard 4 or 10, which have a house edge of 11.11 percent, are worse bets.
Although craps is generally a poor value proposition for the casino bettor, it can be one of the best if you bet right. The casino has only a 1.4 percent edge on bets on the Don’t Pass line. If you’re getting complimentary or discounted rooms, they are probably losing money to you.
3. (c) The pair of 10s. (2 points). Poker players can use probabilities to determine the “expected value” of a hand. The higher the number, the better the chances of winning. The pair of 10s has an expected value of 0.58, versus 0.31 for hand (a) and 0.39 for hand (b). Experienced players will point out that there is a difference between the value of starting hands in tournament and cash poker and factors such as table position and depth of chip stacks will change the expected value of starting hands.
4. i) (a) (2 points). The answer to the “birthday paradox” is one that instinctively feels wrong but can be proven mathematically. The key is that it’s not just the chances of one person having the same birthday as any of the others in the room, it’s about the number of pairs in the room. With 23 people there are 253 possible pairs, which computes to a 50.7 percent chance that one of the pairs will share a birthday. In a room of 57 people there is a greater than 99 percent chance. ii) (b) (2 points). You should always swap doors. At the start you have a one in three, or 33 percent, chance of choosing the $1 million door. Revealing the $1 door doesn’t change your odds but it does change the odds of the remaining door being the correct to 2 in 3, or 66.6 percent. So you should always swap. iii) You should always bet on odd. (2 points). The government may have issued an uneven number of notes, so there is a higher probability that there will be more odd numbered notes in circulation than even ones.
5. (c) (2 points). The biggest move in the odds is almost certain to be on the total points, which linesmakers will drop anywhere between 2 and 5 points on news of an ice storm. Although fumbles and turnovers do increase in these extreme conditions, statistically it’s much harder to score, and betting the “under” on total points will return a higher profit than any of the other bets.
Scoring
0 to 3: The complimentary casino limo is sitting outside ready to whisk you off to Atlantic City. 4 to 6: Don’t give up the day job. 7 to 10: Not bad, but your gambling math could use some work. 11 to 14: You’re on the road to gambling riches. 15 to 16: Are you a professional gambler already?
Here is the link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=auTfQI0ByKnA&refer=home
I don’t know if I should be happy or mad , but I scored a 10.
I don’t know the first thing about craps and I have a problem with two of the questions.
#4 ii) I never took stats, so I don’t see the how changing doors increases your chance to 66%. If anyone cares to explain.
#5 With the info given I wouldn’t bet any of those options. If that game were happening this week I would be on the Dolphins big time. Every square on the planet would be butt fucking Green Bay like it was there job. Also depending on what the line opened at it would most likely move by gametime. It could open the door for a possible middle.
NFL Picks
Cincinnati
Chicago
New York Giants
Thanks Ty, that was fun, but I’m with PR, I can’t figure out how switching doors could matter one way or the other. Personally I’d just take the $1. I don’t like surprises.
NFL Picks
SAN DIEGO -10
SEATTLE -6.5
GREEN BAY -3
GEEK ALERT
PR/BMo, the 3 door problem is a common one used to explain probabilities and most people assume sticking with their orignal choice means the probability of them winning is 1/2.
When you make your original pick that’s a 1/3 chance you get the good stuff. The host then opens a door and shows you one of the losing picks.
If you don’t change your pick you’ve not done anything to change your original guess, so your still on 1/3 and not 1/2 as most people think. Yes there are only 2 doors left, but you picked from all 3.
By switching you’ve had 2 guesses at the 3 doors as you benefit from the one the host opened, so you have a probability of 2/3.
The key isn’t that you had a 1/3 chance at getting it right on the first go, but the 2/3 chance you got it wrong initially. So the odds where always that you got it wrong to start with so you should switch. But people don’t tend to consider the odds of getting things wrong, just the odds of getting it right.
Strangely last time I saw this problem it was donkeys and Metallica tickets, I’ll let you decide which is better.
END OF GEEK ALERT
And yes I know I should get out more.
The Baby Bull vs. The Kid on HBO Boxing After Dark on Saturday. Should be a tremendous fight. Classic boxer vs. brawler fight for the lightweight unification strap.
If I watch something with the prase “after dark” in it, there better be bare breasts.
Pamela Anderson is a life support system for a cunt.
hmmm how about two grown men beating each other senseless?
I have a weird mix of taste in music so my top five will probably reflect that.
Top 5 Albums
1) Frank Sinatra – Wee small hours
2) Pati – Nesian (Hawaiian Reggae. DO yourself a favor and get the song ‘Island Girls’)
3) The Rat Pack – Live At The Sands
4) Bob Marley – Legend (Must have… then again i live in the tropics)
5) Nelly – Nellyville
oh and TD, Ft. APache and Spring Mt.? No good can come of that… very very few reasons to be out there and no one is there ‘randomly’ except to go to the Suncoast. Which, may I add, is my favorite cocktail waitress uniform in all of Vegas
Well, I didn’t like the odds all the way down at AZ +110, so I kept my Rockies ticket unhedged…GO ROCKIES!
English Bob can you please put some NFl picks up ? No way mine are going up till i see yours!
Y’know I’ve never been much of a fan of rugby but I always did enjoy watching the intimidation routine new zealand does. Oh and in case you all were wondering, paul bunyan plays for france’s rugby team. yeesh huge guy with a beard.